CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · NOP

Who gains without Williamson, Jordan, Murray and McGowens

With Williamson, Jordan, Murray and McGowens all 4 out (8 games like this since last season (he played 3 of them)), Poole played 29 minutes (usually 23) and took 5 more shots than usual; our estimate: 27 minutes (Lean).

8 games with all of them out since last season: Nov 8, Nov 12, Nov 14, Apr 7, Apr 10, Apr 12 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Williamson 30, Jordan 17, Murray 30, McGowens 19.

Jordan has missed 8 of the team's last 10; Murray has missed 5 of the team's last 10; McGowens has missed 6 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Jordan Poole
G · 43 games since last season
Lean
Minutes23 → 27 +4
Shots12 → 15 +3
Fantasy pts21 → 25 +4
  • 29 minutes and 28 fantasy points a game in the 3 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 16% of the times one of them left a game
  • +9 minutes in 24 games without Murray alone since last season
  • +6 minutes in 3 games without Williamson alone since last season
Herbert Jones
F · 64 games since last season
Lean
Minutes28 → 32 +5
Shots9 → 10 +2
Fantasy pts21 → 24 +3
  • 35 minutes and 25 fantasy points a game in the 5 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 30% of the times one of them left a game
  • +5 minutes in 44 games without Jordan alone since last season
  • +3 minutes in 31 games without McGowens alone since last season
Saddiq Bey
F · 80 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes31 → 33 +2
Shots15 → 16 +1
Fantasy pts30 → 32 +2
  • 32 minutes and 29 fantasy points a game in the 5 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 51% of the times one of them left a game
  • +4 minutes in 60 games without Jordan alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Caleb Houstan, Jaden Springer. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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