CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · IND

Who gains without Siakam, Nembhard and Furphy

With Siakam, Nembhard and Furphy all three out (12 games like this since last season (he played 10 of them)), Walker played 31 minutes (usually 25) and took 3 more shots than usual; our estimate: 30 minutes (Lean).

12 games with all of them out since last season: Mar 18, Apr 5, Apr 7, Apr 9, Apr 10, Apr 12 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Siakam 32, Nembhard 31, Furphy 19.

Nembhard has missed 5 of the team's last 10; Furphy has missed 10 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Jarace Walker
F · 82 games since last season
Lean
Minutes25 → 30 +4
Shots10 → 13 +3
Fantasy pts23 → 29 +6
  • 31 minutes and 31 fantasy points a game in the 10 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 44% of the times one of them left a game
  • +8 minutes in 6 games without Siakam alone since last season
  • +5 minutes in 10 games without Nembhard alone since last season
Quenton Jackson
G · 55 games since last season
Lean
Minutes18 → 22 +4
Shots8 → 10 +3
Fantasy pts17 → 22 +4
  • 23 minutes and 22 fantasy points a game in the 12 games he played with all of them out
  • +15 minutes in 2 games without Siakam alone since last season
  • +6 minutes in 7 games without Nembhard alone since last season
Jalen Slawson
F · 18 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes20 → 24 +3
Shots5 → 6 +1
Fantasy pts20 → 22 +3
  • 26 minutes and 24 fantasy points a game in the 9 games he played with all of them out
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: James Johnson, Keba Keita, Rienk Mast. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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