Who gains without Collins, Jones, Giddey and Essengue
With Collins, Jones, Giddey and Essengue all 4 out (8 games like this since last season (he played 3 of them)), Smith played 20 minutes (usually 21) and took 1 more shot than usual; our estimate: 24 minutes (Worth watching).
Collins has missed 6 of the team's last 10; Essengue has missed 5 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.
- 20 minutes and 22 fantasy points a game in the 3 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 28% of the times one of them left a game
- +4 minutes in 11 games without Giddey alone since last season
- +3 minutes in 6 games without Jones alone since last season
- 25 minutes and 20 fantasy points a game in the 8 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 26% of the times one of them left a game
- +9 minutes in 31 games without Collins alone since last season
- −8 minutes in 37 games without Essengue alone since last season
- 31 minutes and 21 fantasy points a game in the 7 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 16% of the times one of them left a game
- +7 minutes in 34 games without Essengue alone since last season
- +6 minutes in 27 games without Collins alone since last season
- Matas Buzelis29 → 30 min · 14 → 15 shots30 → 33 fpts
- Caleb Wilson34 → 35 min · 20 → 21 shots40 → 41 fpts
- Buddy Hield14 → 15 min · 5 → 5 shots10 → 11 fpts
- Norman Powell30 → 31 min · 17 → 17 shots30 → 31 fpts
- Dailyn Swain12 → 12 min · 3 → 3 shots9 → 10 fpts
- Tobe Awaka13 → 13 min · 2 → 2 shots15 → 15 fpts
- Jaylin Sellers10 → 10 min · 4 → 4 shots4 → 4 fpts
- Jordan Hawkins6 → 7 min · 3 → 3 shots3 → 3 fpts
- Leonard Miller22 → 21 min · 9 → 9 shots21 → 21 fpts
How this works, and how often it's rightShowHide
We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.
We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).
Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.
Pick players to sit
Tap a name to sit him or bring him back- Caleb Wilson34 min · 6 games
- Josh Giddey31 min · 60 games
- Norman Powell30 min · 6 games
- Matas Buzelis29 min · 83 games
- Tre Jones26 min · 71 games
- Isaac Okoro26 min · 69 games
- Leonard Miller22 min · 33 games
- Jalen Smith21 min · 59 games
- Patrick Williams20 min · 72 games
- Zach Collins15 min · 14 games
- Buddy Hield14 min · 6 games
- Tobe Awaka13 min · 3 games
- Dailyn Swain12 min · 1 game
- Noa Essengue11 min · 7 games
- Jaylin Sellers10 min · 3 games
- Jordan Hawkins6 min · 2 games
New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Drew Peterson, Nic Claxton, Jalen Bridges, Brandon Boston, Orlando Robinson. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.