Who gains without Porter and Nelson
With Porter and Nelson both out (30 games like this since last season (he played 10 of them)), Minott played 23 minutes (usually 17) and took 3 more shots than usual; our estimate: 21 minutes (Lean).
Porter has missed 5 of the team's last 10; Nelson has missed 10 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.
- 23 minutes and 27 fantasy points a game in the 10 games he played with both out
- +12 minutes in 5 games without Porter alone since last season
- 25 minutes and 21 fantasy points a game in the 23 games he played with both out
- +6 minutes in 10 games without Porter alone since last season
- 24 minutes and 23 fantasy points a game in the 19 games he played with both out
- came in for 19% of the times one of them left a game
- +5 minutes in 11 games without Porter alone since last season
- Nolan Traore22 → 23 min · 9 → 11 shots18 → 21 fpts
- Day'Ron Sharpe19 → 20 min · 7 → 8 shots23 → 25 fpts
- Drake Powell21 → 25 min · 6 → 7 shots12 → 14 fptsLean
- Chaney Johnson20 → 20 min · 7 → 7 shots19 → 20 fpts
- Egor Dëmin25 → 25 min · 9 → 9 shots20 → 22 fpts
- Moritz Wagner18 → 18 min · 8 → 9 shots19 → 20 fpts
- Mikel Brown Jr.23 → 23 min · 12 → 13 shots20 → 20 fpts
- Noah Clowney27 → 25 min · 11 → 11 shots22 → 22 fpts
- Joshua Jefferson4 → 4 min · 4 → 4 shots0 → 0 fpts
- Keon Ellis25 → 25 min · 6 → 6 shots19 → 19 fpts
- Julius Randle33 → 33 min · 18 → 18 shots36 → 36 fpts
- Terance Mann24 → 23 min · 6 → 6 shots17 → 15 fpts
How this works, and how often it's rightShowHide
We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.
We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).
Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.
Pick players to sit
Tap a name to sit him or bring him back- Julius Randle33 min · 5 games
- Michael Porter Jr.32 min · 57 games
- Noah Clowney27 min · 71 games
- Keon Ellis25 min · 5 games
- Egor Dëmin25 min · 56 games
- Terance Mann24 min · 64 games
- Mikel Brown Jr.23 min · 4 games
- Nolan Traore22 min · 61 games
- Danny Wolf21 min · 59 games
- Drake Powell21 min · 65 games
- Ben Saraf20 min · 45 games
- Chaney Johnson20 min · 22 games
- Day'Ron Sharpe19 min · 67 games
- Moritz Wagner18 min · 5 games
- Josh Minott17 min · 20 games
- Grant Nelson9 min · 4 games
- Joshua Jefferson4 min · 1 game
New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Ben Humrichous, Tyler Bilodeau. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.