CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · GSW

Who gains without Curry and Porziņģis

With Curry and Porziņģis both out (14 games like this since last season (he played 12 of them)), Santos played 30 minutes (usually 21) and took 3 more shots than usual; our estimate: 28 minutes (Likely).

14 games with both out since last season: Mar 9, Mar 15, Mar 21, Apr 1, Apr 9, Oct 24 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Curry 30, Porziņģis 24.

Porziņģis has missed 8 of the team's last 10, so most of his minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Gui Santos
F · 73 games since last season
Likely
Minutes21 → 28 +8
Shots7 → 10 +3
Fantasy pts19 → 27 +8
  • 30 minutes and 30 fantasy points a game in the 12 games he played with both out
  • came in for 21% of the times one of them left a game
  • +13 minutes in 13 games without Curry alone since last season
  • −2 minutes in 5 games without Porziņģis alone since last season
Al Horford
C · 50 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes21 → 24 +3
Shots7 → 9 +2
Fantasy pts21 → 26 +5
  • 27 minutes and 31 fantasy points a game in the 7 games he played with both out
  • came in for 15% of the times one of them left a game
  • +4 minutes in 10 games without Curry alone since last season
  • −2 minutes in 4 games without Porziņģis alone since last season
Gary Payton II
G · 79 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes15 → 19 +3
Shots6 → 8 +2
Fantasy pts16 → 20 +4
  • 20 minutes and 21 fantasy points a game in the 10 games he played with both out
  • came in for 17% of the times one of them left a game
  • +3 minutes in 14 games without Curry alone since last season
  • −4 minutes in 4 games without Porziņģis alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Tyler Burton, Alex Toohey, Dalen Terry. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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