Who gains without McConnell, Toppin, Nesmith and Furphy
With McConnell, Toppin, Nesmith and Furphy all 4 out (4 games like this since last season), Walker played 31 minutes (usually 25) and took 4 more shots than usual; our estimate: 28 minutes (Worth watching).
McConnell has missed 10 of the team's last 10; Nesmith has missed 5 of the team's last 10; Furphy has missed 10 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.
- 31 minutes and 29 fantasy points a game in the 4 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 47% of the times one of them left a game
- +4 minutes in 24 games without Furphy alone since last season
- −2 minutes in 42 games without Toppin alone since last season
- 21 minutes and 20 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 15% of the times one of them left a game
- +4 minutes in 8 games without McConnell alone since last season
- +4 minutes in 12 games without Furphy alone since last season
- Jay Huff21 → 22 min · 8 → 9 shots22 → 25 fpts
- Jalen Slawson20 → 22 min · 5 → 6 shots20 → 22 fpts
- Andrew Nembhard31 → 31 min · 15 → 15 shots32 → 34 fpts
- Ben Sheppard21 → 23 min · 6 → 7 shots15 → 16 fpts
- Larry Nance Jr.15 → 16 min · 3 → 3 shots11 → 12 fpts
- Kelly Oubre Jr.24 → 24 min · 9 → 9 shots17 → 18 fpts
- Kobe Brown23 → 23 min · 7 → 8 shots18 → 19 fpts
- Ivica Zubac23 → 23 min · 10 → 10 shots25 → 25 fpts
- Braden Smith6 → 6 min · 1 → 1 shots2 → 3 fpts
- Tyrese Haliburton33 → 33 min · 17 → 17 shots45 → 45 fpts
- Pascal Siakam33 → 33 min · 21 → 22 shots40 → 40 fpts
How this works, and how often it's rightShowHide
We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.
We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).
Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.
Pick players to sit
Tap a name to sit him or bring him back- Pascal Siakam33 min · 68 games
- Tyrese Haliburton33 min · 4 games
- Andrew Nembhard31 min · 62 games
- Aaron Nesmith29 min · 50 games
- Jarace Walker25 min · 82 games
- Kelly Oubre Jr.24 min · 6 games
- Kobe Brown23 min · 30 games
- Ivica Zubac23 min · 8 games
- Ben Sheppard21 min · 66 games
- Jay Huff21 min · 87 games
- Jalen Slawson20 min · 18 games
- Obi Toppin19 min · 29 games
- Quenton Jackson18 min · 55 games
- Johnny Furphy18 min · 35 games
- T.J. McConnell17 min · 56 games
- Larry Nance Jr.15 min · 6 games
- Braden Smith6 min · 3 games
New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: James Johnson, Keba Keita, Rienk Mast. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.