If they're out · IND

Who gains without Nesmith, Toppin and Jackson

With Nesmith, Toppin and Jackson all three out (15 games like this since last season (he played 12 of them)), Sheppard played 24 minutes (usually 21); our estimate: 23 minutes (Worth watching).

15 games with all of them out since last season: Dec 1, Dec 3, Dec 5, Dec 8, Dec 12, Mar 12 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Nesmith 28, Toppin 18, Jackson 19.

Nesmith has missed 5 of the team's last 10, so most of his minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise

Ben Sheppard

G · 66 games since last season

Worth watching

Minutes21 → 23 +2

Shots6 → 6 0

Fantasy pts15 → 15 +1

24 minutes and 15 fantasy points a game in the 12 games he played with all of them out
came in for 40% of the times one of them left a game
+4 minutes in 11 games without Nesmith alone since last season
+3 minutes in 23 games without Jackson alone since last season

Everyone else · usual → tonight

Jay Huff
21 → 22 min · 8 → 9 shots
22 → 26 fpts
Jalen Slawson
20 → 22 min · 5 → 6 shots
20 → 22 fpts
T.J. McConnell
17 → 17 min · 8 → 9 shots
22 → 23 fpts
Pascal Siakam
33 → 34 min · 21 → 21 shots
40 → 41 fpts
Kelly Oubre Jr.
24 → 25 min · 9 → 10 shots
17 → 18 fpts
Larry Nance Jr.
15 → 15 min · 3 → 3 shots
11 → 12 fpts
Andrew Nembhard
31 → 32 min · 15 → 15 shots
32 → 33 fpts
Braden Smith
6 → 6 min · 1 → 1 shots
2 → 3 fpts
Ivica Zubac
23 → 23 min · 10 → 10 shots
25 → 25 fpts
Tyrese Haliburton
33 → 33 min · 17 → 17 shots
45 → 45 fpts
Kobe Brown
23 → 23 min · 7 → 8 shots
18 → 18 fpts
Johnny Furphy
18 → 17 min · 5 → 4 shots
14 → 11 fpts
Jarace Walker
25 → 25 min · 10 → 9 shots
23 → 20 fpts

How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: James Johnson, Keba Keita, Rienk Mast. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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