If they're out · ORL

Who gains without Suggs

Without Suggs, Wagner usually plays 31 minutes; our estimate: 35 minutes (Lean).

32 games with all of them out since last season: Oct 30, Nov 1, Nov 2, Nov 5, Nov 7, Nov 10 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Suggs 31.

Suggs has missed 7 of the team's last 10, so most of his minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Franz Wagner
F · 44 games since last season
Lean
Minutes31 → 35 +4
Shots18 → 19 +1
Fantasy pts36 → 40 +4
  • 35 minutes and 39 fantasy points a game in the 14 games he played with all of them out
  • +4 minutes in 5 games without Suggs alone since last season
Anthony Black
G · 71 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes30 → 32 +2
Shots14 → 15 +1
Fantasy pts30 → 34 +4
  • 33 minutes and 33 fantasy points a game in the 29 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 29% of the times Suggs left a game
  • +6 minutes in 20 games without Suggs alone since last season
Wendell Carter Jr.
C-F · 88 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes30 → 32 +2
Shots10 → 11 +1
Fantasy pts27 → 30 +3
  • 32 minutes and 30 fantasy points a game in the 30 games he played with all of them out
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.