If they're out · ORL

Who gains without Suggs and Black

With Suggs and Black both out (2 games like this since last season), Cain played 27 minutes (usually 12) and took 5 more shots than usual; our estimate: 15 minutes (Worth watching).

2 games with both out since last season: Mar 23, Mar 24 (small sample). Their minutes when they play: Suggs 29, Black 29.
Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Jamal Cain
F · 45 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes12 → 15 +3
Shots4 → 6 +1
Fantasy pts9 → 12 +3
  • 27 minutes and 20 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with both out
  • +9 minutes in 15 games without Black alone since last season
  • −5 minutes in 12 games without Suggs alone since last season
Tristan da Silva
F · 82 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes25 → 27 +2
Shots9 → 10 +1
Fantasy pts20 → 22 +2
  • 35 minutes and 33 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with both out
  • +7 minutes in 18 games without Black alone since last season
  • +2 minutes in 17 games without Suggs alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.