CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · PHX

Who gains without Goodwin, Brooks, Williams and Bouyea

With Goodwin, Brooks, Williams and Bouyea all 4 out (3 games like this since last season), Green played 31 minutes (usually 26) and took 4 more shots than usual; our estimate: 32 minutes (Lean).

3 games with all of them out since last season: Mar 5, Mar 6, Mar 8 (small sample). Their minutes when they play: Goodwin 22, Brooks 30, Williams 23, Bouyea 13.

Williams has missed 8 of the team's last 10, so most of his minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Jalen Green
G · 38 games since last season
Lean
Minutes26 → 32 +6
Shots17 → 20 +4
Fantasy pts27 → 33 +6
  • 31 minutes and 29 fantasy points a game in the 3 games he played with all of them out
  • +6 minutes in 14 games without Brooks alone since last season
  • +6 minutes in 5 games without Goodwin alone since last season
Devin Booker
G · 70 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes34 → 36 +2
Shots22 → 25 +3
Fantasy pts39 → 42 +3
  • 34 minutes and 45 fantasy points a game in the 3 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 38% of the times one of them left a game
  • +3 minutes in 38 games without Bouyea alone since last season
  • +2 minutes in 8 games without Goodwin alone since last season
Collin Gillespie
G · 86 games since last season
Lean
Minutes28 → 32 +4
Shots11 → 12 +1
Fantasy pts27 → 29 +3
  • 31 minutes and 26 fantasy points a game in the 3 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 88% of the times one of them left a game
  • −2 minutes in 38 games without Bouyea alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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