CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · MIA

Who gains without Smith, Goldin and Johnson

With Smith, Goldin and Johnson all three out (8 games like this since last season), Larsson played 30 minutes (usually 27) but took 1 fewer shot than usual; our estimate: 30 minutes (Worth watching).

8 games with all of them out since last season: Mar 3, Mar 14, Mar 25, Mar 29, Oct 21, Oct 24 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Smith 15, Goldin 3, Johnson 9.

Smith has missed 6 of the team's last 10; Goldin has missed 6 of the team's last 10; Johnson has missed 6 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Pelle Larsson
G · 76 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes27 → 30 +3
Shots9 → 9 0
Fantasy pts22 → 25 +3
  • 30 minutes and 26 fantasy points a game in the 8 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 32% of the times one of them left a game
  • +5 minutes in 11 games without Smith alone since last season
  • −3 minutes in 43 games without Goldin alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Kylor Kelley, Ian Schieffelin, Bez Mbeng, Tre Donaldson. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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