Who gains without Holmes, Nnaji and Strawther
With Holmes, Nnaji and Strawther all three out (12 games like this since last season (he played 8 of them)), Braun played 36 minutes (usually 32) and took 1 more shot than usual; our estimate: 35 minutes (Worth watching).
Holmes has missed 5 of the team's last 10; Nnaji has missed 6 of the team's last 10; Strawther has missed 5 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.
- 36 minutes and 26 fantasy points a game in the 8 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 19% of the times one of them left a game
- +6 minutes in 26 games without Nnaji alone since last season
- +3 minutes in 10 games without Strawther alone since last season
- 38 minutes and 64 fantasy points a game in the 12 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 20% of the times one of them left a game
- +5 minutes in 33 games without Nnaji alone since last season
- +4 minutes in 52 games without Holmes alone since last season
- 34 minutes and 23 fantasy points a game in the 10 games he played with all of them out
- came in for 19% of the times one of them left a game
- +7 minutes in 43 games without Holmes alone since last season
- +5 minutes in 20 games without Strawther alone since last season
- Trevon Brazile23 → 24 min · 7 → 7 shots20 → 22 fpts
- Jamal Murray36 → 37 min · 20 → 21 shots43 → 44 fpts
- Aaron Gordon28 → 29 min · 13 → 14 shots28 → 30 fpts
- Marvin Bagley III12 → 12 min · 4 → 3 shots12 → 12 fpts
- Cam Whitmore7 → 8 min · 4 → 4 shots7 → 7 fpts
- Ryan Nembhard3 → 3 min · 2 → 2 shots7 → 7 fpts
- Alpha Diallo22 → 22 min · 4 → 4 shots10 → 10 fpts
- Tyus Jones9 → 9 min · 2 → 2 shots6 → 6 fpts
- DeMar DeRozan26 → 26 min · 11 → 10 shots21 → 20 fpts
- Bryce Hopkins16 → 17 min · 3 → 3 shots6 → 6 fpts
- Spencer Jones22 → 20 min · 4 → 3 shots14 → 11 fpts
How this works, and how often it's rightShowHide
We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.
We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).
Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.
Pick players to sit
Tap a name to sit him or bring him back- Jamal Murray36 min · 80 games
- Nikola Jokić35 min · 70 games
- Christian Braun32 min · 49 games
- Cameron Johnson30 min · 56 games
- Aaron Gordon28 min · 41 games
- DeMar DeRozan26 min · 5 games
- Trevon Brazile23 min · 5 games
- Alpha Diallo22 min · 1 game
- Spencer Jones22 min · 64 games
- Bryce Hopkins16 min · 4 games
- Julian Strawther15 min · 57 games
- Marvin Bagley III12 min · 5 games
- Zeke Nnaji12 min · 53 games
- Tyus Jones9 min · 16 games
- DaRon Holmes II8 min · 27 games
- Cam Whitmore7 min · 2 games
- Ryan Nembhard3 min · 2 games
New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Emanuel Miller, Coleman Hawkins, Dane Goodwin. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.