CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · NYK

Who gains without McCullar, Kolek and McBride

With McCullar, Kolek and McBride all three out (9 games like this since last season (he played 8 of them)), Shamet played 28 minutes (usually 23) and took 2 more shots than usual; our estimate: 26 minutes (Worth watching).

9 games with all of them out since last season: Mar 4, Mar 8, Mar 13, Mar 15, Mar 24, Apr 10 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Jr. 8, Kolek 12, McBride 23.

McCullar has missed 9 of the team's last 10; Kolek has missed 6 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Landry Shamet
G · 57 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes23 → 26 +3
Shots8 → 9 +1
Fantasy pts15 → 16 +1
  • 28 minutes and 17 fantasy points a game in the 8 games he played with all of them out
  • +4 minutes in 26 games without McBride alone since last season
  • +2 minutes in 15 games without Kolek alone since last season
Mohamed Diawara
F · 70 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes9 → 11 +2
Shots3 → 4 +1
Fantasy pts7 → 7 +1
  • 12 minutes and 7 fantasy points a game in the 8 games he played with all of them out
  • +8 minutes in 32 games without McBride alone since last season
  • −5 minutes in 44 games without McCullar alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Bruce Brown, Dalton Knecht, Ochai Agbaji, Drew Eubanks, Tyler Nickel. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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