CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · MEM

Who gains without Prosper

Without Prosper, Mashack usually plays 22 minutes; our estimate: 28 minutes (Likely).

33 games with all of them out since last season: Apr 10, Apr 12, Oct 21, Oct 23, Oct 25, Oct 26 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: Prosper 20.

Prosper has missed 7 of the team's last 10, so most of his minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Jahmai Mashack
G · 31 games since last season
Likely
Minutes22 → 28 +6
Shots7 → 9 +3
Fantasy pts16 → 21 +5
  • 32 minutes and 25 fantasy points a game in the 6 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 28% of the times Prosper left a game
Ty Jerome
G-F · 20 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes24 → 27 +3
Shots17 → 20 +2
Fantasy pts35 → 39 +4
  • 29 minutes and 44 fantasy points a game in the 5 games he played with all of them out
  • +6 minutes in 4 games without Prosper alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Carson Cooper. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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