CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · IND

Who gains without Sheppard, McConnell, Smith and Furphy

With Sheppard, McConnell, Smith and Furphy all 4 out (2 games like this since last season), Jackson played 17 minutes (usually 18) but took 1 fewer shot than usual; our estimate: 21 minutes (Worth watching).

2 games with all of them out since last season: Oct 23, Oct 25 (small sample). Their minutes when they play: Sheppard 20, McConnell 17, Smith 6, Furphy 19.

Sheppard has missed 9 of the team's last 10; McConnell has missed 10 of the team's last 10; Smith has missed 3 of the team's last 6; Furphy has missed 10 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Quenton Jackson
G · 55 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes18 → 21 +2
Shots8 → 9 +1
Fantasy pts17 → 20 +2
  • 17 minutes and 15 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 17% of the times one of them left a game
  • +4 minutes in 8 games without McConnell alone since last season
  • +4 minutes in 12 games without Furphy alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: James Johnson, Keba Keita, Rienk Mast. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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