If they're out · GSW

Who gains without Butler and Porziņģis

With Butler and Porziņģis both out (20 games like this since last season (he played 16 of them)), Santos played 28 minutes (usually 21) and took 2 more shots than usual; our estimate: 27 minutes (Likely).

20 games with both out since last season: Oct 21, Oct 23, Oct 24, Oct 26, Oct 28, Oct 30 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: III 31, Porziņģis 24.

Butler has missed 10 of the team's last 10; Porziņģis has missed 8 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Gui Santos
F · 73 games since last season
Likely
Minutes21 → 27 +6
Shots7 → 9 +2
Fantasy pts19 → 26 +6
  • 28 minutes and 27 fantasy points a game in the 16 games he played with both out
  • came in for 20% of the times one of them left a game
  • +16 minutes in 16 games without Butler alone since last season
  • −2 minutes in 5 games without Porziņģis alone since last season
Moses Moody
G · 60 games since last season
Lean
Minutes26 → 29 +4
Shots10 → 12 +2
Fantasy pts22 → 26 +3
  • 31 minutes and 27 fantasy points a game in the 7 games he played with both out
  • +4 minutes in 17 games without Butler alone since last season
Brandin Podziemski
G · 86 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes29 → 31 +2
Shots12 → 14 +2
Fantasy pts28 → 31 +3
  • 32 minutes and 32 fantasy points a game in the 18 games he played with both out
  • came in for 16% of the times one of them left a game
  • +2 minutes in 17 games without Butler alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.