CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · DET

Who gains without Smith, Lanier, Duren and Jones

With Smith, Lanier, Duren and Jones all 4 out (2 games like this since last season), Reed played 25 minutes (usually 15) and took 3 more shots than usual; our estimate: 19 minutes (Lean).

2 games with all of them out since last season: Nov 29, Jan 4 (small sample). Their minutes when they play: Smith 7, Lanier 7, Duren 28, Jones 4.

Duren has missed 5 of the team's last 10; Jones has missed 7 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Paul Reed
F · 71 games since last season
Lean
Minutes15 → 19 +5
Shots6 → 8 +2
Fantasy pts20 → 26 +6
  • 25 minutes and 27 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 47% of the times one of them left a game
  • +18 minutes in 10 games without Duren alone since last season
  • −12 minutes in 38 games without Jones alone since last season
Daniss Jenkins
G · 78 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes21 → 23 +3
Shots9 → 10 +1
Fantasy pts20 → 23 +3
  • 20 minutes and 26 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with all of them out
  • +7 minutes in 10 games without Duren alone since last season
  • −7 minutes in 44 games without Jones alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: Brice Williams, John Ukomadu, Ugonna Onyenso. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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