If they're out · DAL

Who gains without Flagg, Martin and Poulakidas

With Flagg, Martin and Poulakidas all three out (3 games like this since last season), Marshall played 29 minutes (usually 29) but took 1 fewer shot than usual; our estimate: 32 minutes (Worth watching).

3 games with all of them out since last season: Nov 19, Feb 12, Feb 27 (small sample). Their minutes when they play: Flagg 33, Martin 16, Poulakidas 20.

Martin has missed 8 of the team's last 10, so most of his minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Naji Marshall
F · 77 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes29 → 32 +2
Shots13 → 15 +2
Fantasy pts28 → 31 +3
  • 29 minutes and 23 fantasy points a game in the 3 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 35% of the times one of them left a game
  • +2 minutes in 18 games without Martin alone since last season
Dwight Powell
F-C · 63 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes14 → 17 +2
Shots2 → 3 +1
Fantasy pts12 → 14 +2
  • 13 minutes and 14 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with all of them out
  • +4 minutes in 6 games without Flagg alone since last season
P.J. Washington
F · 62 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes31 → 34 +2
Shots13 → 14 +1
Fantasy pts30 → 31 +2
  • 34 minutes and 29 fantasy points a game in the 2 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 29% of the times one of them left a game
  • +3 minutes in 6 games without Flagg alone since last season
  • +3 minutes in 16 games without Martin alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.