If they're out · CHA

Who gains without McNeeley, Salaün and Williams

With McNeeley, Salaün and Williams all three out (7 games like this since last season (he played 6 of them)), Diabaté played 29 minutes (usually 26) and took 1 more shot than usual; our estimate: 28 minutes (Worth watching).

7 games with all of them out since last season: Nov 15, Nov 17, Nov 19, Mar 4, Mar 11, Apr 3 and earlier. Their minutes when they play: McNeeley 10, Salaün 15, Williams 20.

McNeeley has missed 6 of the team's last 10; Williams has missed 6 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Moussa Diabaté
F · 79 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes26 → 28 +2
Shots6 → 7 0
Fantasy pts26 → 28 +2
  • 29 minutes and 30 fantasy points a game in the 6 games he played with all of them out
  • came in for 22% of the times one of them left a game
  • +4 minutes in 34 games without Salaün alone since last season
  • −4 minutes in 22 games without Williams alone since last season
Pat Connaughton
G · 42 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes7 → 10 +3
Shots2 → 3 +1
Fantasy pts6 → 8 +2
  • 13 minutes and 11 fantasy points a game in the 7 games he played with all of them out
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.