CourtLensFantasy
If they're out · IND

Who gains without McConnell, Smith, Nesmith and Brown

McConnell, Smith, Nesmith and Brown sat together only once since last season, so this comes from who replaced each of them and how the team played without each one. Toppin usually plays 19 minutes; our estimate: 21 minutes (Worth watching).

1 game with all of them out since last season: Oct 21 (small sample). Their minutes when they play: McConnell 17, Smith 6, Nesmith 28, Brown 23.

McConnell has missed 10 of the team's last 10; Smith has missed 3 of the team's last 6; Nesmith has missed 5 of the team's last 10, so most of their minutes are already in everyone's recent numbers.

Likely strong evidenceLean some evidenceWorth watching a tip, not a promise
Obi Toppin
F · 29 games since last season
Worth watching
Minutes19 → 21 +3
Shots10 → 11 +1
Fantasy pts22 → 25 +3
  • 25 minutes and 31 fantasy points a game in the 1 game he played with all of them out
  • +11 minutes in 5 games without McConnell alone since last season
  • +4 minutes in 4 games without Brown alone since last season
Everyone else · usual → tonight
How this works, and how often it's rightShow

We start from each teammate's recent minutes, shots and fantasy points since last season, then hand out the minutes the missing players have been playing: mostly to whoever came in when each of them left a game, and to whoever played more when each one sat on his own, with a small nudge toward the same position. Minutes a player already lost while someone was out are not counted twice. Shots move with how often each teammate finished plays when none of the missing players were on the floor. When the exact group has sat together 4 or more times, those games count too.

We checked it on 1,183 games in 2025-26 where a team had two or more rotation players out, using only games played before each one. Our minutes were off by 5.2 a player on average in games from February on, against 6.06 using season averages and 9.41 adding up each missing player's own "who gains" numbers. Fantasy points: off by 8.12, against 8.59 and 12.48. Our biggest predicted minutes gainer was one of the night's two biggest gainers 52% of the time (adding up single-player numbers: 37%).

Likely means 6 or more minutes over his usual: 79% of those players really did play at least 2 more. Lean (3.5 to 6 more): 65%. Worth watching (2 to 3.5 more): 52%. Blowouts, foul trouble and coaches' whims make any one night noisy.

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New to the team, no games with them in our sample yet: James Johnson, Keba Keita, Rienk Mast. They will take some of these minutes, and we can't say how many until they play.

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