Playoff planner
Most leagues play their final three weeks. Connect your league and we fill in yours when the platform shares it (Sleeper and ESPN do).
Player ranks use category league scoring (change it from the league button up top).
Forecast from Oct 31. Who tanks and who gets shut down in April isn't settled until late in the season; this updates every day as records and injuries change.
Hornets: 4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs. We expect its regulars to play 9.0 of 12.
Toughest: Pelicans, 9 games and about a 68% chance of being out of the race; its regulars about 5.5.
Expected games include the chance of injuries between now and then, so they sit below the schedule for everyone.
My team
Every team's playoff schedule
Sorted by the games we expect a regular (20+ minutes) to play in weeks 23–25. Light nights have 5 or fewer games league-wide, the easiest nights to fit a player in.
| Team | Regulars play | Games | B2B | Light |
|---|---|---|---|---|
9.0 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 1 | |
8.7 | 124-4-4 | 3 | 2 | |
8.4 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 0 | |
8.2 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 0 | |
8.1 | 114-3-4 | 0 | 3 | |
7.8 | 124-4-4 | 3 | 0 | |
7.7 | 113-4-4 | 2 | 0 | |
7.7 | 114-4-3 | 2 | 0 | |
7.7 | 114-3-4 | 2 | 0 | |
7.6 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 1 | |
7.5 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 1 | |
7.5 | 114-4-3 | 2 | 0 | |
7.3 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 0 | |
7.2 | 113-4-4 | 3 | 2 | |
7.2 | 113-4-4 | 3 | 1 | |
7.1 | 114-4-3 | 3 | 1 | |
7.1 | 103-3-4 | 1 | 1 | |
7.0 | 103-4-3 | 2 | 0 | |
7.0 | 114-3-4 | 2 | 3 | |
6.8 | 102-4-4 | 2 | 2 | |
6.8 | 103-4-3 | 0 | 0 | |
6.5 | 114-3-4 | 2 | 2 | |
6.5 | 114-3-4 | 2 | 1 | |
6.5 | 104-3-3 | 1 | 1 | |
6.5 | 124-4-4 | 2 | 1 | |
6.3 | 113-4-4 | 2 | 1 | |
6.2 | 113-4-4 | 3 | 1 | |
6.2 | 114-3-4 | 2 | 0 | |
6.1 | 113-4-4 | 2 | 0 | |
5.5 | 93-2-4 | 1 | 3 |
Games per week under each total. Regulars play: games we expect each 20+ minute player to play, the gold part of the bar out of the team's games. Tap a team for its stars and its chance of being out of the race.
Worth targeting for the playoffs
Worth more in weeks 23–25 than the rest of the season: more games and less rest than a typical team, at least half a game more. A schedule edge, not a sure thing: when we tested these lists on the last two seasons, the players to sell held up but the ones to target were hit and miss.
- Brandon MillerCHA9.0 of 12 +1.0
4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 39 (usual 50). Expected games +1.0 against a typical schedule.
- LaMelo BallMIN9.2 of 12 +1.2
4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 64 (usual 74). Expected games +1.2 against a typical schedule.
- Jaden McDanielsMIN9.1 of 12 +1.2
4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs; he sat 0 of 12 second nights last season.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 30 (usual 39). Expected games +1.2 against a typical schedule.
- OG AnunobyNYK8.8 of 12 +1.0
4 games in each playoff week, 2 on light nights, with 3 back-to-backs; he sat 0 of 12 second nights last season.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 45 (usual 53). Expected games +1.0 against a typical schedule.
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN9.7 of 12 +1.4
4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs; he sat 0 of 14 second nights last season.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 80 (usual 87). Expected games +1.4 against a typical schedule.
- Kon KnueppelCHA9.5 of 12 +1.4
4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs; he sat 0 of 16 second nights last season.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 26 (usual 33). Expected games +1.4 against a typical schedule.
- Cade CunninghamDET8.9 of 12 +1.3
4 games in each playoff week with 2 back-to-backs; he sat 0 of 9 second nights last season.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 14 (usual 21). Expected games +1.3 against a typical schedule.
- Miles BridgesPHX8.8 of 11 +0.5
11 games in weeks 23–25 (4, 4, 3) with 2 back-to-backs; he sat 0 of 15 second nights last season.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 65 (usual 72). Expected games +0.5 against a typical schedule.
Sell before the deadline
Top-100 players worth less in weeks 23–25 than usual: fewer games, more back-to-backs, a team likely to sit its regulars.
- Domantas SabonisSAC4.2 of 11 −1.9
2 back-to-backs in weeks 23–25; at 30 he sat 50% of second nights last season (2 of 4); about a 88% chance his team is out of the race by March, when teams sit regulars; his team's last games of the season fall in week 25, when teams rest players.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 48 (usual 29). Expected games −1.9 against a typical schedule.
- Dejounte MurrayNOP3.3 of 9 −1.9
About a 68% chance his team is out of the race by March, when teams sit regulars; his team's last games of the season fall in week 25, when teams rest players; only 9 games in weeks 23–25.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 84 (usual 65). Expected games −1.9 against a typical schedule.
- Joel EmbiidPHI2.9 of 10 −1.4
1 back-to-back in weeks 23–25; at 32 he sat 100% of second nights last season (6 of 6); his team's last games of the season fall in week 25, when teams rest players; only 10 games in weeks 23–25.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 75 (usual 57). Expected games −1.4 against a typical schedule.
- Trey Murphy IIINOP5.6 of 9 −1.8
About a 68% chance his team is out of the race by March, when teams sit regulars; only 9 games in weeks 23–25.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 43 (usual 32). Expected games −1.8 against a typical schedule.
- Zion WilliamsonNOP5.6 of 9 −1.9
About a 68% chance his team is out of the race by March, when teams sit regulars; only 9 games in weeks 23–25.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 57 (usual 47). Expected games −1.9 against a typical schedule.
- Zach LaVineSAC5.2 of 11 −1.6
2 back-to-backs in weeks 23–25; at 31 he sat 29% of second nights last season (2 of 7); about a 88% chance his team is out of the race by March, when teams sit regulars; his team's last games of the season fall in week 25, when teams rest players.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 78 (usual 68). Expected games −1.6 against a typical schedule.
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN4.7 of 11 −1.6
2 back-to-backs in weeks 23–25; he sat 43% of second nights last season (3 of 7); about a 90% chance his team is out of the race by March, when teams sit regulars; his team's last games of the season fall in week 25, when teams rest players.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 37 (usual 28). Expected games −1.6 against a typical schedule.
- Damian LillardPOR5.9 of 10 −1.0
2 back-to-backs in weeks 23–25; stars sit more often on the second night; only 10 games in weeks 23–25.
9-cat rank for weeks 23–25: 49 (usual 41). Expected games −1.0 against a typical schedule.
How this works, and how accurate it is
Each player runs through our Will he play? model game by game, from today to the end of the regular season: how often he misses games, games missed in a row, minutes, age, his own record on back-to-backs, and each game as scheduled (second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, long road trips, his team's last three games).
Teams out of the race (under .400 after 50 games) sit regulars more in March and April. Nobody knows in October who that will be, so each team gets a chance of being there by mid-March, from its record (last season's, pulled toward average, until this season's takes over) and how much a team can surprise. The model counts that effect at half strength this season, after the league changed the lottery rules to discourage tanking.
Targets and sells compare each player's value in your weeks (expected games × his per-game value above a waiver-level player, from our rankings) with the same value on a typical schedule with typical rest. The difference is only schedule and rest; his own injury risk counts the same on both sides.
Checked against the last two seasons, forecasting the final weeks from mid-November: regulars played 6.9 of the last three weeks' games on average in 2025-26 and 7.2 in 2024-25. The raw model said about 8, mostly because more teams rest players late than it counts, so late-season numbers here are scaled down 7%, and 14% in the final week. For a single player, expect to be off by about 3 games over three weeks either way: injuries months away can't be seen. The schedule part is the part you can plan around.