CourtLensFantasy
2026-27 fantasy

Who you can count on

How often each player reaches a stat line, counted from real games, with the number of games behind every rate. A long record ranks above a short perfect one.

Updated Oct 31, 4:34 AM ET · 2025-26 regular season and this season's games so far · 233 players from our fantasy top 250

Last season's games, or games at his new minutes when his role has moved.

10+ points

  1. 1Kevin DurantHOUAlmost every game · Most nights 18–35 points; under 15 only 4 times100%78 of 78
  2. 2James HardenCLERole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 15–34 points; under 15 only 6 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: sharing the ball with Watson and Mitchell: about 2 fewer shots a game expected.100%70 of 70
  3. 3Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKCAlmost every game · Most nights 21–40 points; never under 20100%68 of 68
  4. 4Kawhi LeonardTORRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 20–37 points; under 20 only 3 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: new team: LAC to TOR.100%65 of 65
  5. 5Luka DončićLALAlmost every game · Most nights 24–44 points; under 20 only 4 times100%64 of 64
  6. 6Pascal SiakamINDAlmost every game · Most nights 14–32 points; never under 10100%62 of 62
  7. 7Austin ReavesLALAlmost every game · Most nights 14–35 points; never under 10100%51 of 51
  8. 8Lauri MarkkanenUTARole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 18–35 points; under 15 only onceLast season's rate; his role has changed: sharing the ball with George and Jackson: about 4 fewer shots a game expected.100%42 of 42
  9. 9Jaylen BrownPHIRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 20–37 points; under 20 only 7 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: new team: BOS to PHI; sharing the ball with Maxey and Embiid: about 4 fewer shots a game expected.99%70 of 71
  10. 10Tyrese MaxeyPHIRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 18–39 points; under 15 only 5 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: sharing the ball with Brown and LeBron: about 2 fewer shots a game expected.99%69 of 70
  11. 11Donovan MitchellCLERole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 16–37 points; under 15 only 5 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: sharing the ball with Watson and Harden: about 2 fewer shots a game expected.99%69 of 70
  12. 12Deni AvdijaPORAlmost every game · Most nights 17–33 points; under 15 only 4 times98%65 of 66
  13. 13Nikola JokićDENAlmost every game · Most nights 16–38 points; under 15 only 4 times98%64 of 65
  14. 14Devin BookerPHXAlmost every game · Most nights 17–36 points; under 15 only 4 times98%63 of 64
  15. 15Victor WembanyamaSASAlmost every game · Most nights 14–39 points; under 10 only once98%63 of 64
  16. 16LeBron JamesPHIRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 12–29 points; under 10 only onceLast season's rate; his role has changed: new team: LAL to PHI.98%59 of 60
  17. 17Julius RandleBKNRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 12–32 points; under 10 only twiceLast season's rate; his role has changed: new team: MIN to BKN.97%77 of 79
  18. 18Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATLAlmost every game · Most nights 11–30 points; under 10 only twice97%76 of 78
  19. 19Jamal MurrayDENAlmost every game · Most nights 14–39 points; under 10 only twice97%73 of 75
  20. 20LaMelo BallMINRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 12–30 points; under 10 only twiceLast season's rate; his role has changed: new team: CHA to MIN.97%70 of 72
  21. 21Cooper FlaggDALAlmost every game · Most nights 11–33 points; under 10 only twice97%68 of 70
  22. 22Anthony EdwardsMINAlmost every game · Most nights 15–41 points; under 15 only 6 times97%59 of 61
  23. 23Jalen BrunsonNYKAlmost every game · Most nights 15–35 points; under 15 only 7 times96%71 of 74
  24. 24Jalen JohnsonATLAlmost every game · Most nights 12–32 points; under 10 only 3 times96%69 of 72
  25. 25Paolo BancheroORLAlmost every game · Most nights 12–32 points; under 10 only 3 times96%69 of 72
  26. 26RJ BarrettTORAlmost every game · Most nights 12–27 points; under 10 only twice96%55 of 57
  27. 27Trey Murphy IIINOPRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 11–33 points; under 10 only 3 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: sharing the ball with Mathurin and Williamson: about 2 fewer shots a game expected.95%63 of 66
  28. 28Joel EmbiidPHIRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 18–37 points; under 15 only twiceLast season's rate; his role has changed: sharing the ball with Brown and LeBron: about 3 fewer shots a game expected.97%37 of 38
  29. 29Brandon IngramLACRole changedAlmost every game · Most nights 13–31 points; under 10 only 4 timesLast season's rate; his role has changed: new team: TOR to LAC.95%73 of 77
  30. 30Cade CunninghamDETAlmost every game · Most nights 12–33 points; under 10 only 3 times95%61 of 64
How we count
  • Hit rate: games he reached the line, out of games he played. Games he sat out aren't counted here; availability is a separate question (our rankings handle it).
  • Most nights: the middle 8 of every 10 games, from his 10th to his 90th percentile game.
  • Words: “Almost every game” means 95% or more over at least 30 games, “Very reliable” 85% or more, “Usually” 70% or more. Under 10 games we just give the count and call it a small sample.
  • Best fit: last season's games, unless his expected minutes have moved 20% or more, then the games he played at about his new minutes. Once he has 20 games this season, this season leads.
  • Current role: games from last season and this season where his minutes were within 20% of what we expect now. Games he left early (injury, blowouts) fall outside it, so rates here can run a little high.
  • Role changed: a new team, minutes expected to move 20% or more, or a crowded new rotation that should cost him 2+ shots a game. Last season's rates still count, but read them with that in mind.
  • Ranking: by how sure we can be of the rate, not the raw rate, so 70 of 71 ranks above 15 of 15.
  • Boom or bust uses fantasy points (points + 1.2 per rebound + 1.5 per assist + 3 per steal + 3 per block − 1 per turnover).
  • Stat lines: a game counts only when he reached every number in that same game (15+ points, 5+ rebounds and 5+ assists that night, not on average). That's much harder than each number alone, so rates run far lower than single-stat rates. Same games, same small-sample words and same ranking as above.
  • Double-double on the Stat lines tab means 10+ in two of points, rebounds and assists. The one on Most reliable also counts steals and blocks; they almost never differ.
  • Starts only / Bench only: we tell who started from play-by-play (on the floor at the opening tip). A player is listed when 60% or more of his games match, and only those games count, so a starter with a few bench nights doesn't show up on bench lists. Bench lists also include bench regulars outside our fantasy top 250. A few games with patchy play-by-play (under 2% last season) count for neither.
  • Positions are the NBA's listings. Guards: any listing with G (G, G-F, F-G, so Luka Dončić counts). Wings: G-F, F-G, or F under 6-11. Bigs: any listing with C, plus forwards 6-11 or taller (Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed F). A G-F is both a guard and a wing. If a player has no listing we go by height, which is rougher.

This is about fantasy reliability, not betting advice. Past games don't promise future ones.