How we did
How close our projections came
Players in our top 200 who played, 968 player-games so far. Fantasy points: points + 1.2 per rebound + 1.5 per assist + 3 per steal + 3 per block − 1 per turnover.
Against each player's own average so far this season (5+ games, 59 player-games): ours missed by 9.3, his average by 9.2. His own average was closer.
Oct 24 – Oct 30
Average miss, week by week
Shorter is better. Weeks start on Monday.
- Oct 19526 games8.89.0
- Oct 26442 games8.99.3
Do the confidence labels hold up?
A hit: in a game the star missed, the teammate we named played 5+ more minutes and scored 5+ more fantasy points than his average in games with the star. If he didn't play at all, it's a miss.
- Likely0 of 4 (0%)
- Lean7 of 20 (35%)
- Worth watching4 of 8 (50%)
2 more didn't count because the teammate wasn't with the team that night.
- Clint CapelaLeanOct 30, Alperen Sengun out: 30 min, 37.7 fantasy pts (usually 6 min, 3.3 with him)Hit
- Zaccharie RisacherWorth watchingOct 30, Naji Marshall out: 28 min, 33.7 fantasy pts (usually 30 min, 28.2 with him)Miss
- Clint CapelaLeanOct 28, Alperen Sengun out: 22 min, 35.6 fantasy pts (usually 6 min, 3.3 with him)Hit
- Aday MaraLeanOct 26, Chet Holmgren out: 20 min, 28.0 fantasy pts (usually 13 min, 10.5 with him)Hit
- Ajay MitchellLeanOct 26, Chet Holmgren out: 26 min, 41.9 fantasy pts (usually 25 min, 27.7 with him)Miss
- Alex CarusoLeanOct 26, Chet Holmgren out: 9 min, 15.9 fantasy pts (usually 22 min, 27.8 with him)Miss
- Alex CarusoWorth watchingOct 26, Jalen Williams out: 9 min, 15.9 fantasy pts (usually 22 min, 27.8 with him)Miss
- Bennett StirtzWorth watchingOct 26, Jalen Williams out: 25 min, 7.7 fantasy pts (usually 4 min, 2.1 with him)Hit
- Jared McCainLeanOct 26, Jalen Williams out: 30 min, 31.6 fantasy pts (usually 20 min, 12.0 with him)Hit
- Kenrich WilliamsLeanOct 26, Jalen Williams out: 24 min, 17.4 fantasy pts (usually 7 min, 5.1 with him)Hit
- Zaccharie RisacherWorth watchingOct 26, Naji Marshall out: 30 min, 29.1 fantasy pts (usually 30 min, 28.2 with him)Miss
- Jabari WalkerLeanOct 25, Joel Embiid out: didn't play (usually 6 min, 6.3 with him)Miss
No graded pickups yet
A hit: over the 7 days after we listed him, he scored at least 4 fantasy points a game more than before, or as many as the 150th-best player in our projections. A game he sat counts as zero. Players still on the list days later count once.
20 more are still inside their 7-day window.
Our biggest misses
The largest gaps over the last 7 days of games, in either direction.
- Jeremiah FearsOct 29 · NOP vs SAC · we said 23.7, he scored 66.1 in 29 min (we had 25)+42.4above
- Lauri MarkkanenOct 26 · UTA vs MEM · we said 36.3, he scored 2.0 in 6 min (we had 35)−34.3below
- Stephen CurryOct 28 · GSW vs MIN · we said 34.8, he scored 66.6 in 32 min (we had 30)+31.8above
- Cooper FlaggOct 26 · DAL vs MIA · we said 40.9, he scored 71.7 in 40 min (we had 32)+30.8above
- Yaxel LendeborgOct 30 · GSW vs LAL · we said 32.8, he scored 2.2 in 24 min (we had 29)−30.6below
- Caleb WilsonOct 24 · CHI vs WAS · we said 31.3, he scored 60.3 in 38 min (we had 30)+29.0above
- Ivica ZubacOct 25 · IND vs BKN · we said 33.6, he scored 5.2 in 7 min (we had 30)−28.4below
- Brandon MillerOct 26 · CHA vs WAS · we said 32.5, he scored 60.7 in 36 min (we had 30)+28.2above
Sleepers, fades and hidden costs: too early
We grade these once teams have played 15 games (they've played 5 so far). A few games say little about a whole season. 89 draft-day calls are saved and waiting.
How we grade
- When we save
- Once a day, from 9 a.m. Eastern (earlier if a game tips sooner), only for games that haven't started. The line saved is the one our rankings showed at that hour. Injury-report status is updated until tip.
- Who counts
- Players in our top 200 for points or 9-cat leagues who played. Games where a player sat, or was listed out or doubtful, are counted separately.
- Last season's average
- His per-game numbers from last season, when he played 10+ games. Rookies and players without that are left out of the comparison.
- Handcuffs
- One test per game a star missed (on the box score but no minutes), for each teammate we named for him in the 7 days before. Compared with the teammate's average in games with the star this season (3+ needed).
- Pick him up
- The 7 days after the day we listed him, his team's games only. A listing within 7 days of an earlier one isn't counted again.
- Sleepers, fades, hidden costs
- Each player's last listing before opening night. Ranks so far: points leagues by total fantasy points, 9-cat by summed category scores against the top 156. Graded from 15 team games on, and updated as the season goes.
- Preseason
- Not counted. We use it to test the recording.
Waiver wire with receipts
Every Monday: who to pick up, who gains when a star sits, who's rising and falling, and how last week's calls did.