2026-27 fantasy
Trends
Who's playing better or worse lately than earlier in the season, and whether it's likely to last. Every call shows the games and numbers behind it.
Waiting for the first games
Trends start once the 2026-27 regular season has a week of games. Opening night is in late October, so the first list shows up about a week after that.
How this works
- Lately vs before: his games in the last 7, 14 or 30 days against his earlier games this season. Early in the season, when he has fewer than 8 earlier games, we compare with last season instead and say so.
- Who's listed: at least 3 games in the last week, 5 in the last 2 weeks or 8 in the last 30 days. Risers need 15+ fantasy points a game lately; fallers needed 20+ before. Ranked by the size of the change.
- Fantasy points: points + 1.2 per rebound + 1.5 per assist + 3 per steal + 3 per block − 1 per turnover. 9-cat ranks by the change in his total across the nine categories, each measured against this season's regulars (FG% and FT% weighted by attempts, turnovers count against).
- Where the change came from: we split it three ways that add up exactly. Minutes: the extra (or lost) minutes at his old points per minute. Shooting luck: points from making shots above or below his norm (his makes over last season and this season before the stretch, pulled toward the league rate when he hasn't taken many). Role: everything else per minute, like more shots, rebounds and assists.
- Is it real? Hot or cold shooting doesn't count toward lasting. Extra minutes count most when there's a lasting reason (he's starting now, a trade, he's closing games) and least when they came while a regular teammate sat and that teammate is back, or in blowouts. Production per minute counts more the more games are behind it. “Looks real” means about 60% or more of the change rests on things that tend to hold; “Partly real” 30 to 60%; under that, “Probably won't last”. Three games or fewer can't be “Looks real”.
- Teammates out: a regular (20+ minutes a game over 5+ games for the team) who missed at least half the team's games in the stretch, when his minutes in those games ran 3+ higher than with that teammate playing. We read absences from box scores, so we can't tell an injury from rest; check the injury report for a return date.
- Starting comes from play-by-play (on the floor at the opening tip). Blowout minutes: 4th quarter or later with the score 20+ apart. Closing: 4th-quarter minutes in games decided by 10 or fewer. Plays finished: possessions that ended with his shot, turnover or trip to the line, out of his team's possessions while he was on the floor.
- Late season: on teams with a losing record late in the year, extra minutes for young players tend to last through April but tell you little about next season.
- How well it works: we replayed last season at eight dates from late November to March and looked at the next three weeks. Risers over 1 or 2 weeks that we called “Looks real” kept about two thirds of their jump, “Partly real” about half, and “Probably won't last” almost none of it. Over 30 days most jumps held either way (about 70%), so the label matters less there. Drops are harder to call: fallers got back about half of what they lost, whatever the label.
Trends are about recent games, not a promise about the next ones. Not betting advice.
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